Malthusian Egypt?
Steve Sailer just had a post entitled "Malthusian Egypt", and I think it's much more pro-Malthusian than the evidence warrants.
If a country was actually pushing the limits of its land's carrying capacity, you'd expect the per capita food production to decline.
But it looks like per capita food production in Egypt has actually expanded.
In 1961 Egypt had a population of 28.5 million and a food production per capita index of 51.
By 2007 Egypt's population had expanded to 80 million, and in spite of this the food production per capita index doubled to 102.
This suggests that Egyptian agriculture is under less strain now than when the population was only 36% of what it is now.
It is true that Egypt imports a lot of food. However, it's worth noting that World food production per capita has also increased in spite of the profound increase in overall population:
And really, if Afghanistan could have a DECLINE in its food production per capita index from 1961 to 2007 without it leading to a slackening of their population growth, Egypt with its increase in food production per capita doesn't look to have anything to worry about anytime soon.
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Egypt found some oil and exported that to buy food. Now they are transitioning into being net importers of oil. Maybe they will be saved by shale gas? As China and India develop they can buy all surplus grain in the world and feed it to their livestock which doesn't bode well for Africans.
Egypt found some oil and exported that to buy food. Now they are transitioning into being net importers of oil.
If the price of oil goes up, that could make up for reduced production.
Maybe they will be saved by shale gas?
Under Mubarek at least I suspect the government is too corrupt to pull off something like that.
As China and India develop they can buy all surplus grain in the world and feed it to their livestock which doesn't bode well for Africans.
Actually, the 2010 per capita GDP of Egypt is more than 90% higher than that of India.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
Moreover, the average life expectancy in Egypt is 6.6 years longer than in India.
There's no way Egypt is going to be outbid by India for grain.
Now India could reach a point soon where they'll be able to outbid the sub-Saharan African countries, but not Egypt.
A rule of thumb with hunger/famine is that it happens in the poorest countries first.
The sub-Saharan African (especially the West sub-Saharan African) countries would see a Malthusian die off long before anyone else.
Then you'd see population growth in India chocked off before such a thing had a chance of happening in the North African Caucasoid countries.
China has a per capita income abut $1,200 greater than Egypt.
If China's economy continues to grow at about twice the rate as Egypt, there's a chance that Chinese meat eaters will at some point be in a position to outbid Egyptian plant eaters for excess grain.
At the same time it's worth noting there's a very good chance China's population will start declining before that happens, greatly mitigating the effect.
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