Russian Fertility Rate Increased By 4.7% In 2009

The importance of Russia can't be understated.  What it combines is the most Racially and Culturally Conservative government of a majority White Country today, with the only really strong army in Eurasia with the exception of the Non-White Nation of China.

For this reason it was very good to see that in 2009 the Russian Total Fertility Rate defied predictions that it would decline in response to the World Financial Crises, and instead continued the pattern of increase which began in 2007, the year Vladimir Putin announced that women choosing to have a second child would receive 250,000 rubles and rolled out a stream of pro-family programs, events, and holidays.

From Anatoly Karlin:

In a recent post, Mark Adomanis pointed out that the Russian economy has done significantly better than many other East European nations during the recent crisis and is now mounting a strong recovery. He also speculated on the effects of the crisis on the demography of badly-affected countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, and the Baltics, on the basis that ”Russia’s experience during the 1998 debt default amply demonstrates that cutting healthcare budgets and pensions in the midst of an economic catastrophe causes a lot of excess deaths among vulnerable sectors of the population”.

Now I’ve never really worried about the consequences on mortality of an economic recession, because I don’t buy into The Lancet’s arguments that it was the reduction in Russian social spending in 1998 that contributed to the mortality wave of 1999-2002, since the increasing affordability of, and consumption of, alcohol was by far the more convincing factor. (Also, in industrialized states, recessions tend to correlate with falls in mortality rates). On the other hand, hard recessions – especially ones which result in reduced public spending on social welfare – usually are associated with substantial reductions in fertility.

In this post I’m going to take a look at how valid these observations and theories are in light of the recent economic crisis in Eastern Europe.

Russia. At the start of the crisis in late 2008, I expected Russia’s fertility rate to fall slightly – though nowhere near the magnitudes predicted by Russia’s “demographic doomers”, of course. (Though even for that I got a lot of flak). Yet ironically even my predictions turned out to be too pessimistic, probably because increased government spending meant that Russians’ social welfare hardly suffered at all during the crisis. Even Russia’s fertility rate continued to climb, reaching 1.56 in 2009 (2008 – 1.49, 2007 – 1.41, 2006 – 1.30), a level last seen in 1992.

And like I said, Russia’s trends towards falling mortality actually accelerated, with life expectancy for both genders hitting 69.0 years in 2009 (2008 – 67.9, 2007 – 67.5, 2006 – 66.6, 2005 – 65.3) – a level that was only ever previously observed in 1963-1974 and 1986-1991.

[Source: Rosstat].

Demographic improvements relative to the same period last year continued in Q1 2010, with the birth rate up another 1.3% and mortality rates falling by 2.0% (inc. by about 10% for external causes). (The figures on fertility are particularly significant when you recall that Russia reached the nadir of its economic crisis in H1 2009). According to Sergey Slobodyan’s demographic model, the data indicates that a projection of 1.9-2.0mn deaths and 1.8-1.9mn births in 2010 is feasible, meaning that natural population decrease will almost cease (the total population should grow, as last year, due to immigrants).

Conclusion – contrary to hysterical predictions of economic and demographic apocalypse propagated about Russia in late 2008, the real impact on social welfare was very marginal and the demographic situation actually continued to improve. This year, Russia’s life expectancy will probably approach 70 years (still very low for an industrialized country) and its total fertility rate will hit around 1.6 children per woman (as in Canada). Although the mortality rate remains very substandard relative to the industrialized world, current healthcare and anti-alcohol initiatives are helping usher in rapid improvements.
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An addendum to this entry: Since this post it has come to the World's attention that the top nationalist party in Greece, Golden Dawn, is in favor of closer relations between Greece and Russia:

"Remember that until recently, before the Memorandum, we had one of the most powerful air forces, with highly trained pilots. Another issue raised by the Golden Dawn today, which is included in our program, is the reversal of our geopolitical orientation. That must be a shift in energy and defense to Russia. We must start a deal of energy and a defensive alliance and from there to expand the alliance to other fields." -Ilias Kasidiaris
Golden Dawn's website is found here:http://www.xryshaygh.com/index.php/home

Information on how to donate to Golden Dawn can be found here:http://www.xryshaygh.com/index.php/home/oikonomikh-enisxysh

Golden Dawn NYC's website is found here:http://xaameriki.wordpress.com/